Mist, sleet, and snow mixture expected tonight

Posted: 2018/02/06 in Weather
Tags: , ,

futurama-one inch

Sunday evening when the risk forecast was written, there was very good confidence in that whatever was coming Tuesday was a threat.  However the weather models did a bit of a 180 on Monday, where at least an inch of snow probability went from 80% to 20% yet even .01 of ice remained roughly the same.

This morning the river fog threat got nullified by the winds that picked up and became strong enough – but less than 100 miles upstream patchy river fog was being reported along the Illinois River and confirmed by traffic cameras in Peoria.  I elected not to make the post before the AM peak and instead focused to watch the models when I woke up to see if the system moving this evening was moving in for the evening peak or holding off for later.

For this southern system it appears that the Gulf of Mexico is not being tapped.

This radar image from a tweet is telling me it has been tapped but not to the degree that causes the big Ohio Valley snow monsters. The SPC does have some Marginal Risk down in Mississippi and Louisiana but not the slight or enhanced risk that potent winter systems often brings.

As a result the forecast around here is up to an inch of snow and .10 of ice – but it will depend on how the system tracks as it goes through Arkansas. The NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory that starts at the tail end of the evening peak tonight and expected to last into the morning peak on Wednesday. The timing will be the big factor whether or not the evening peak is dicey or dry. The winter probabilistic were about 50% for an inch of snow and 10% for .01 of ice – a combination of the two is likely. (There is a sharp cutoff of 1% to 70% on .01 of ice between St. Louis and Mt. Vernon when it comes to the storm hitting the Metro East.)

The admins expect the very worst to happen just to the south. Either way it takes very little to cause big problems – and it was the case on Sunday when less than an inch of snow caused massive problems on 44 southwest of St. Louis. The bust potential with this system is still high so if there is one that does happen pray it goes in our favor.

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