As of 1:55 AM Friday, there is still no weather alerts from the NWS, however, with the storm about 4 hours out the site post is being made. Questionable weather is expected for Friday and the forecasters are mentioning a cold snap and snow for the day possibly at a poor time. While the risk forecast for Friday was set for Medium there is still a chance it will be upgraded at some point.

Above was a graphic posted about 24 hours before the storm system was to arrive. At this time on Thursday a cold front was rolling through complete with a quick hit thunderstorm but with no severe weather.

Graphic posted about 8 hours in advance of the system. NWS has issued Winter Weather Advisories for the I-72 corridor but stopped short of issuing them for the I-70 corridor in the St. Louis area. This can still change for Friday as the storm makes its approach.

Mentalities

  1. This is a classic panhandle nook but the moisture is marching down I-70 and not taking the I-44 trajectory.
  2. Temperatures are expected to remain borderline throughout the event and will not bottom out after the system rolls through. This is important as the projected highs are expected to be above normal by the end of the holiday weekend.
  3. Snowfall will not overcome the melting from the warm ground at the onset of the event but as intensity picks up there will be accumulations on grass and other raised surfaces.
  4. Up to 2 inches of snow is likely with higher amounts just to the north and lesser amounts south. Local areas seeing 4 to 6 is not out of the question but those will be the more rural areas where it is out in the open and in areas that are very hilly.

Very questionable weather is expected to move in first thing Monday morning in time for the morning peak, with freezing rain threat that has resulted in the National Weather Service to issue Winter Weather Advisory for the entire area. This weather forecast has already caused the schools in the area to throw in the towel for tomorrow and extend their weekend and this in turn will likely force hands of the parents when it comes to work.

Mentalities with the storm

  1. Onset is freezing rain or sleet with the emphasis on the former. 
  2. Entire AM peak is below freezing.
  3. PM Peak is either at or near freezing as the mountains in southwest and southeast Missouri and west central Arkansas will slow down the surge of warm air (similar to that December 2016 event) as cold air is very dense.
  4. The low pressure is a classic Ohio Valley monster low.
  5. Very worst impacts are just south and southwest of this area in the higher elevations. The NWS weather alerts reflect this to some degree.
  6. Up to .3 inch of ice but the majority of the area is around the .1 to .2 area with higher amounts southwest of St. Louis with the emphasis on higher elevations.

The peak periods have been set to TBD for the first time this season and could be facing the first high risk of the winter season as an southern storm is expected to pass through the region and become a Great Lakes powerhouse system. 

Mentalities with the event

  1. Precipitation types are low confidence and expect anything to happen. Its likely going to start as snow, change over to rain, and back to snow at some point. The “anything goes” situation of a St. Louis winter is going to be put on full display with this storm. Expect the unexpected.
  2. The one high confidence factor is that winds will be extremely strong. The one thing about a Great Lakes powerhouse is that isobars tend to be tightly packed and that translates to strong winds. Truckers need to take extra precautions. The strong winds will make anything that does fall as snow very bad and ground blizzards in the days following the storm may occur to the north.
  3. Not prepared to provide snowfall numbers at 18 hours out but its either going to be all or nothing.
  4. The conclusion of the event is expected to set up the late week storm. No details in this post but the risk forecast did spin out more TBD at the end of the week.

At or near 5:30 PM on Wednesday, an alleged police pursuit involving a very dangerous suspect caused a crash on or near the river bridge, halting both eastbound traffic for an hour while crews processed the scene. The timing of the crash drew the attention of the news media within minutes.

Crews diverted the eastbound traffic forcing them to go through Alton during the the late stages of the peak hour commute. Both lanes would reopen by 6:40 PM.

Remember that level in Super Mario Brothers 3 where that sun is trying to go after Mario? This is the case this week with Mother Nature as temperatures flirted with 100 degrees with heat index between 115 and 120. Tuesday afternoon during the hottest part of the day, one of the semis failed to navigate the westbound lanes between the river bridge and Riverview and it resulted in an epic fail at a bad time of the day – just as the evening peak started.

Facebook post – in case embed does not work.

It never fails that the start of the school term (most Riverbend schools started last week, North County started this week) tends to bring out the biggest and baddest incidents on 270, and this crash was no exception.

Westbound traffic backed up to Route 3 as the westbound drivers had to limp through on the ramps to and from Riverview (dealing with the 4 way stop that is there) while eastbound was delayed back to 367. The incident is not cleared until 5:15, which was approximately 2 hours after the incident allegedly happened at or shortly after 3 PM.

During the 4 PM hour, there was a crash on the canal bridge in the eastbound direction. The initial crash involved a semi and several vehicles and blocked multiple lanes of traffic.

The crash triggered several secondary incidents, including one on the river bridge that made both eastbound lanes unavailable until the 7 PM hour:

Just for good measure, there was another secondary crash at Bellefontaine that resulted in 4 incidents in just under 3 hour time span.

The weather was quiet but breezy when the incidents all occurred.

Shortly after 3 AM on Thursday morning, a tractor-trailer failed to navigate the curve at Lilac and crashed on 270 causing debris to scatter across all four lanes of traffic. This incident caused both directions of 270 to be unavailable for use for nearly 3 hours causing a potential peak hour panic – but crews made quick work to get the lanes available just in time for the two busiest hours of the peak periods. It was also an otherwise slow news morning in the area because all three television stations went very aggressive in this coverage given the proximity of the river bridge and the timing of the crash.

There has not been a lot of weekend work going on for the past few weeks, but this weekend, there will be mainline closures that will have one lane unavailable for use from first thing Saturday morning through 5 AM Monday morning. There is a bit of questionable weather that is expected to impact just to the north of here late tonight or early Saturday morning given by this NWS Winter Weather Advisory:

Expect reduced speed limits and inconveniences this weekend. There is even more questionable weather for Sunday night but that is expected to be liquid and temperatures are not expected to be an issue.

As advertised last week on Facebook, the ramp from Riverview to eastbound 270 is about to become unavailable for section for the next 16 months, with a projected reopening date for July 2024. This move is not only going to force the people that use that ramp to go to the Lilac exit, it is also going to nerf the Chambers Road alternate in the event of stuff going horribly wrong on 270 deeper into North County.

This forecast risk has since shifted the enhanced risk further north into the St. Louis metro as Mother Nature attempts to sneak a weak winter system with mist and freezing rain into the region. This event is likely going have the potential to be on par with the poor timing December 2016 event where just 0.03 of ice caused major problems during the evening peak and admins have not and will not release the risk forecast for the upcoming week until the last minute. Likewise this site post was made at the last minute to make sure the dangerous conditions were confirmed or imminent.

The mentalities are not going to be much

  1. AM peak is questionable due to the mist. The worst time to be out, however, is Sunday evening when people are not expecting this system. This is why a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect.
  2. This is a Ohio Valley Monster that got just enough to impact this area, but it is not a powerful system by all standards.
  3. Projected amounts are very small maybe up to 0.10 of ice. The reality is that it is just enough ice to put any peak period down the drain.